Density vs Urban Sprawl: What the Numbers Really Say

During this election, you’re going to hear a lot about the “need” for densification. The problem is, much of what’s being said is based on half-truths. I’ve been watching City Hall for a long time, and I believe we need to have an honest conversation — because the narrative being pushed isn’t the full story.

In many cases, urban sprawl can actually be more financially sustainable than density, and I want to explain why.

1. The “Efficient Services” Myth

One of the most common arguments I hear from density advocates is that putting more people into existing infrastructure is more efficient.

But when I look at the numbers, I see a different picture.

Fire Rescue Services

• A 2021 review found that fire response times are consistent across the city, whether in the Orchards at Ellerslie or Downtown.

• If response times are the same, there’s no evidence that dense neighbourhoods are inherently better for emergency services.

  
  

2. Policing Costs: Higher Density, Higher Crime Rates

Crime rates are significantly higher in dense areas.

Example: Downtown vs. Suburbs

Ward	Occurrences	Population	Crime Rate (occurrences per 1,000 people)
O-day’min (Downtown)	16,400	83,000	197.59
Metis	9,300	105,000	88.57
Sipiwiyiniwak	3,400	96,100	35.38
Pihesiwin	2,100	85,500	24.56

Look at the gap between Downtown (O-day’min) and the rest of the city. Policing high-density areas costs more because crime rates are higher.

3. Transit: The “Efficiency” Drop

Edmonton’s 2021 Bus Network Redesign shifted service toward high-density areas, aiming for efficiency. The result? By 2024, despite record ridership, efficiency actually dropped compared to 2019.

Year	Revenue	Expenses	Net Gap (Covered by Taxes)	% Gap
2019	$135M	$365M	$230M	63%
2024	$152M	$447M	$295M	66%

That’s 5% less efficient than the system that served more suburban riders.

4. Infrastructure: Replacement Costs Can Outweigh New Builds

While it’s cheaper to use existing networks in theory, upgrading old systems often costs more than building new ones from scratch. Balanced growth—both infill and expansion—can actually be more cost-effective in the long run.

5. Greenspace & Public Services: The Hidden Value

• Mature neighbourhood greenspaces aren’t just pretty—they manage stormwater and provide room for schools and hospitals.

• Infill on surplus school sites (like in Mill Woods) removes future flexibility.

• Yes, less greenspace saves on maintenance costs—but it can overload already crowded services.

  
  

6. The Tax Revenue Misunderstanding

Some councillors claim that density means more tax revenue. Here’s the truth: Edmonton’s property taxes are zero-sum. City Council decides the budget first, then divides the bill among all properties. Adding more properties doesn’t automatically increase the total money collected—it just spreads the cost differently.

Yes, dense areas might generate more tax per hectare, but they also tend to cost more to service per hectare. Downtown may only contribute about 5% of the city’s tax base but can consume 25–40% of the City’s spending. That’s not sustainability.

Revenue means nothing if expenses outpace it.

7. Better Planning Isn’t Just Density

I’m not against density. I’m for smart planning. That means keeping options open—single-detached homes, condos, townhouses—because residents deserve real choice, not just the choice a handful of urbanists think they should have.

If a home is unlivable, replace it. But tearing down perfectly good houses during a so-called “housing emergency” just reduces supply before we even build replacements.

If Council truly believes we are in a crisis, sprawl wouldn’t be off the table—we’d be using every tool we had to create more homes, faster.

We need smart planning to address the housing crisis

The Bottom Line

Sprawl isn’t the villain it’s made out to be, and density isn’t automatically more sustainable. The real goal should be balanced growth—making decisions based on honest data, not slogans or half-truths.

That’s the kind of planning conversation I believe Edmonton deserves this election.